Demographics: Population of the Sonoran Desert

The Future

It is estimated that the population of the Sonoran Desert will be 12 million by 2020. Rate of change is expected to differ among municipalities and counties and range from negative 1% to greater than 6% per year (TNC et al.). While one might question population projections based on a 5 year trend, the pattern of fast growing areas and static areas they mapped (Figure 5 in report - get permission to put up that map) provides warning markers of locales most likely to be affecting by an increasing population. Overall population growth in the region in the past three decades, the continuing in migration of people into the region, and the percentage of the population below 18 years of age strongly suggest that an overall continuing rapid growth in the regions population is, indeed, the most probable scenario.